Housing Market Q1 2024
15th April 2024
Estate agents oscillate between caution and optimism on the outlook for the housing market.
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Housing Market Q1 2024
15th April 2024
Estate agents oscillate between caution and optimism on the outlook for the housing market.
In recent weeks several major estate agents and their national association have published reviews of the housing market for Q1 of 2024.
According to FNAIM, the national association of estate agents, sales were down by -2.6% on an annual basis, which in its wake has led to a fall in prices.
With few exceptions, no region has been spared, although the analysis is inevitably focused on the main urban areas rather than rural locations, where it is more difficult to measure the state of the market.
At a national level FNAIM states that prices have fallen by -1.4% over the year to the end of March 2024, to reach an average price of €3,037m2. Only certain towns around the Mediterranean and the Atlantic coast seem to have escaped the fall. Since 2020, FNAIM report that prices have fallen on average by around -10%.
However, as the graphic below shows, the national average figure disguises significant differences across the country, with price falls of up to -7%, particularly around Paris and the Ile-de-France.
Separate studies by national agents Orpi, Laforêt and Century 21 also report prices in retreat. For Laforêt, the fall has been a national average of -4.7% on an annualised basis, whilst for Century 21 it is -3.3% and for Orpi -3.0%. However, the concordance is slightly spoilt by national agents Guy Hoquet, who report that prices increased by +2.9% in the year to the end of March, with notable increases in Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. The final arbiter of the figures will need to be the notaires, whose Q1 figures have yet to be delivered.
Once again the analysis by the agents is mainly derived from price movements in the conurbations, with Laforêt notably reporting that in Bordeaux, Strasbourg, Metz, Rennes, and Lyon price falls have been ‘significant’ whilst they have been more moderate in Toulouse, Rouen, and Lille. Conversely in certain towns - Biarritz, Brest, Nice, and Marseille - prices have risen.
Like agents Guy Hoquet, Century 21 also point out that prices are not falling in all regions, with prices having increased in the year to the end of March 2024 in Provence Cote-d’Azur (+4.1%). Prices in Nouvelle-Aquitaine have also remained relatively stable.
The agents ascribe the fall in sales and prices primarily to high interest rates, which rose to around 4.5% last year, but which have recently fallen back slightly to nearer 4.0% for a 25-year loan (excluding fees and insurance).
Together with an easing of credit conditions by the European Central Bank, the agents are reporting that there are timid signs of the market entering a recovery phase, albeit a modest one, and one which, according to Charles Marinakis, president of Century 21 France, may not manifest itself clearly until the second half of the year.
Whilst buyers remain cautious, and many remain absent from the market, property market analysts 'Obs-IK' are reporting that the shortage of properties that was evident in the market last year has eased, rising from nearly 350,000 in October 2023 to nearly 500,000 at the end of March, an increase of over 30%.