5th June 2022
After record temperatures in May, forecasters in France predict a hot, dry summer ahead.
The holiday season got off to a warm start in France, with record temperatures in May and a spring that was the 3rd hottest on record, behind 1900, 2011 and 2020.
After a winter where rainfall was down on the average by 45%, it was also the driest spring since 1959.
As a consequence, many departments in France have been obliged to impose water restrictions. The image below shows the forecast for those departments most at risk of a drought this summer.
With summer now under way, Météo-France have published their forecast for the next three months.
They consider that the weather is likely to be warmer than normal, a scenario that has a ‘relatively high’ level of confidence of 70% for the southern half of the country.
According to the La Chaîne Météo, June could be the hottest month of the summer with temperatures forecast to be +2°C above seasonal norms. However unlike spring, the storms would be back on an axis extending most often from the southwest to the northeast, as has already occurred.
For July, there would not be much change from June, with it warmer than normal by around +1.5°C, and with a recurrence of thunderstorms on the usual axis from the southwest to the northeast.
From August, a change in the weather pattern could take place, with the establishment of more disturbed, wetter weather, but still quite warm due to a south-westerly flow. Under these conditions, rainfall could be in excess of about 5% to 10%, while the temperatures would still be higher by +0.5° to +1°C compared to the normal.